Dirk Knemeyer

The Mobile OS wars

The Mobile OS wars, May 31, 2011

A short comment contextualizing the prediction could go right here

The unknown, the big question is, what will the market look like in five or ten years? Will Apple again be relegated to a bit player while this time it is Google standing over this industry? It is likely that Android will continue increasing marketshare while Apple loses it. Further it is likely that viable alternate platforms—let’s just say Microsoft’s Windows Phone for now—make a meaningful dent in the market. But Apple’s not going away. Dusting off my crystal ball I’m going to predict that Apple will not drop below 20% marketshare in the next five years, while Android will not rise above 60%. Ok sure, that is a big difference. But is is large enough to make Android a better dev platform than iOS? Well, perhaps, but it remains no great mystery to this analyst why Apple remains the better bet, at least for now, for good developers to spend their time on.